What's New

06 June 2008
Argentine Government makes concessions to farmers but dispute not yet settled. Sun oil importers are facing unusual supply squeeze in the near term.
The Argentine farm associations had decided on a renewed sales stop from May 28 to June 2. Then the government came up with minor reductions in its controversial flexible export tax system on May 29. But the concessions were made only at the very top of the price scale of the tax system. It remains to be seen whether Argentine farmers consider this concession an acceptable result of a row lasting for weeks.
The initial responses of farmer representatives to the modified export taxes point to ongoing strike action, possibly resorting to road blocks in addition to a sales stop.

05 February 2008 
Supply growth rates of the 4 major oils are highly insufficient to cover the expansion of demand for food and nonfood purposes this season.
The fact that stock markets and prices of agricultural commodities temporarily moved downward in tandem was indeed based on somewhat shaky arguments. There can be no doubt that a recession in the US can to some degree curb domestic demand for agricultural commodities in the food and non-food sectors, but it is also true that the bulk of oilseeds, grains and products from the US and other key producers finds most of its demand growth in emerging markets like China and India, where GDP growth rates of around 10% and 8%, respectively, can still be expected this year.

03 january 2008
Tightness and Very High Prices Likely to Prevail
Strong world demand for food (mainly in Asia) as well as for biodiesel (in Europe, the USA, South America and other countries). Bearishness of substantial increase in palm oil production & recovering stocks will be probably fully offset by the tightness in other oils & fats (mainly soya oil, sun oil and rape oil), by the low stocks at the start of this season and the strong world demand.

09 December 2007
Accelerating Chinese Import Requirements and Impacts on the World Markets.
China turns out to be a good example for what happens when supply declines and demand increases. An ever hungrier population and sharply reduced domestic oilseed production this season (down by 5 Mn T from last season) have resulted in sharply higher imports. The effect on the world market is to be seen in increased bullishness for oilseeds and vegetable oils in the recent past. China's economy has been exhibiting double-digit growth rates in the last months and years.

02 November 2007
G-4 Soybean Disposals Soaring by 3.4 Mn T or 11% in Sept & Oct
Soybean crushings and exports of the USA, Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay were larger than expected in Sept and Oct 2007. Outstanding have been the developments in Argentina: Record export demand for soya oil and meal boosted Argentine soybean crushings to a new record of probably 3.73 Mn T in October.

11 October 2007
Bullish Factors are still Dominating
Prices of most oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals continued to rally in the first 11 days of October on top of the astounding appreciation registered during September. The explanation is simple: World production cannot be increased quickly enough to keep up with the unusually strong demand. Part of this demand is caused by the biofuel industries which have been boosted at an unusual pace during the past two years. Rapidly increasing usage of oils & fats has boosted total world consumption to levels which notably exceed production. The result is a decline in world stocks of oilseeds and grains as well as of oils & fats

21 September 2007
2007/08 Global Production Deficit of 10 Oilseeds Aggravating and Widening to a Record of  18 Mn Tn
New downward revisions in oilseed crop estimates have become necessary in almost all major northern-hemisphere countries. Only in India prospects have improved where it is now expected to recover in oilseed production by 3.3 Mn T or 11%. The world market's dependence on South American supplies of oilseeds and products will increase this season. However, drought in central Brazil and parts of Argentina may also curb production in early 2008 below potential, thus creating a new risk....

14 September 2007
Rapeseed & Canola: Canadian Exporters Will Benefit from Strong World Demand and Lower than Expected Australian Crop...
World trade is picking up and will be above last year in July/Sept 2007. China, Pakistan and several other countries have higher import requirements of rapeseed and canola. The higher Chinese import requirements of an estimated 1.9 Mn T in June/May 2007/08 (against 0.7 last season) are due to the much lower domestic production and will be mainly satisfied by Canada...
Canola production prospects in Australia have deteriorated at an alarming pace. Australian canola export projection is only 550 Thd T in Nov/Oct 2007/08 from previous projections of 880 Thd T.

31 August 2007
World Oilseed Production Set to Decline in 2007/08...
The global supply & demand balance of 7 major oilseeds will become tighter than expected hitherto. Production estimates of 384 Mn T for the 7 oilseeds is expected to fall short of world demand of 402 Mn Tn.